Daily Ag Direction 1/22/25
Good Morning!
Typical knee jerk reaction in wheat to fears about winter kill in the regions hit with the coldest weather. I wouldn’t look for that to provide any long-term direction for the market. US export inspections were deemed poor yesterday but fundamentals with weather are enough to keep things going higher. With the short position currently in wheat there is potential for fast and furious moves if positions get unwound. Wheat is also seeing some alleviation in technicals as we traded through the 100-day ma and are targeting $5.95 as our next level of resistance. Corn slightly positive after trading weaker overnight. Farmers continue to reward the market for new highs slowing the run higher. Good export inspections help bolster the bulls. China halted bean import shipments from 5 Brazilian companies due to quality concerns. A little more technical resistance for beans that need to break the 200-day ma to break open the top end potential. If March trades above $10.77 there are opportunities for fireworks. However, the market has to prove it first. Cattle rocketing up today while contending with a feed market that is showing strength. Estimates for Friday’s cattle on feed looking for 99.8% on feed vs. a year ago and 101.8% on placements and 101.3% on marketings. That placement estimate would be 5% below the five-year average for December. There is some concern cutout values could fall off allowing cash cattle to break. Currently, march feeder prices are trading in an upward channel between $268 and $274/cwt.
Mar KC Wheat +4.4 @ $5.80
July 25 KC Wheat +4.4 @ $5.99
Mar Corn +1.4 @ $4.92
Dec 25 Corn +1.4 @ $4.61
Mar Beans -2.0 @ $10.65
Nov 25 Beans +4.6 @ $10.55
Mar Feeders +3.775@ $271.050
Feb Live +2.300 @ $199.350
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
