Daily Ag Direction 7/21/25
Good Morning!
Good growing conditions continue to put a lid on grain markets. Heat risk seems like a moot point as soil moisture profiles are adequate to weather the storm in the near term. AgRural has increased the Brazil corn production number to 136.3 mmt from 130.6mmt. US corn is hitting the export market but are decreasing as importers favor South American supplies. Paris wheat has seen some strength and US tries to follow on short covering, but the market cannot gain traction. A few items will come to a head with much of the Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest completed, EU and Black Sea commercials short cash, funds short futures and producers unwilling to sell and many quality issues. Something will have to change to break farmer bushels loose and higher prices will cure that. There will be a heavy lid though as producers are actively selling any rally they see. This week will offer an interesting opportunity to determine where this market wants to live. If HRW can’t break out to $5.40/bu. on the Sept., trade will keep prices in the $5.15-$5.30 range.
Sept KC Wheat -3.4 @ $5.26
July 26 KC Wheat -3.6 @ $5.93
Sept Corn -6.4 @ $4.02
Dec 25 Corn -6.0 @ $4.21
Sept Beans -13.6 @ $10.07
Nov 25 Beans -13.4 @ $10.22
Aug Feeders +1.300 @ $325.300
June Live +0.800 @ $224.350
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!
-Trent
